As Gun Sales Stay High, Violent Crime Hits a Historic Low

The FBI just released its final 2025 national crime statistics. The numbers from 2024 to 2025 are striking:

• Violent crime fell 9.3 percent
• Murder and non-negligent manslaughter fell 18.1 percent
• Robbery fell 18.5 percent
• Rape fell 7.6 percent
• Aggravated assault fell 7.2 percent
• The murder rate fell to 4.1 per 100,000 in 2025, which the FBI says is tied with 1955-56 for the lowest national rate in its historical estimates.

The FBI actually describes the 9.3 percent decline as the largest year-to-year drop in violent crime since national estimates began in 1936. 

An important caveat is that these are national statistical estimates based on reported data. For 2025, more than 17,000 agencies submitted data.

“The numbers offer a striking reversal from the increase in violent crime seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. They also represent the second consecutive year of substantial declines,” said the FBI in a press release.

Other than thanking law enforcement—which is a key component to controlling crime—the FBI’s press release doesn’t attempt to explain the reasons behind the historic fall in violent crime.

It is interesting, however, that this drop in crime is correlating with a decades-long increase in gun sales. Correlation is not causation, of course, but as gun-control groups and the politicians who would take away the Second Amendment often make the argument that gun sales equal more crime, it is worth noting this specious claim is very provably not the case.

From 1998 onward, the FBI National Instant Background Check System (NICS) numbers are a good proxy for retail demand for guns bought by Americans. According to raw numbers, from 2000 to 2009, the number of NICS checks roughly doubled, from 8.5 million to 14 million; from 2010 to 2019, the number of NICS checks roughly doubled again, from 14.4 million 28.4 million; in 2020, NICS checks surged to about 39 million; by 2023, background checks had cooled to about 29.9 million.

Not all of those background checks represent gun sales, but the NICS checks do a solid job of showing the overall trend—and the trend has clearly shown a steady increase in gun sales.

This has occurred as national violent crime rates have largely been falling. Clearly, an increase in gun ownership in America does not equal more violent crime.

The reasons for this historic fall in violent crime rates then is not our Second Amendment-protected freedom. As this FBI press release notes, law enforcement has a lot to do with controlling crime. Armed citizens, however, are also a part of that equation, as studies on defensive gun use indicate Americans thwart a lot of crimes. But in a still largely free society, it is difficult to quantify how much crime rates are impacted by law-abiding gun owners.