Fear & Loading: Firearm Sales Showing Interesting Trends

by
posted on December 6, 2018
** When you buy products through the links on our site, we may earn a commission that supports NRA's mission to protect, preserve and defend the Second Amendment. **
nics_nssf_ibncsdvk_1118-nssf-nics-graphs-2-small.jpg

A continuation of a “new norm” in gun sales below last year’s totals is reflected in November’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figures—which don’t necessarily reflect a gun purchase with each one processed—but some unusual trends also developed. Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting’s (SAAF) Chief Economist Jurgen Brauer commented in a press release that, “… despite the year-over-year decline, November sales actually were uncommonly strong in that the increase from October to November is the second-largest observed over the past six years.”

In addition, the number of times multiple guns were processed—representing the purchase of at least two firearms—came in at 38,028. That’s the second highest ever for a single month, trailing only 2012’s December total of 38,438. The SAAF press release noted: “This category of sales has seen strong gains throughout the year and it would be helpful to market analysts if in the future the FBI were to release more detailed information.”

Overall volume, however, remains at a pace that may see 2018 claim third-place honors for annual sales, trailing 2016 and 2017, respectively. As for November, after the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) adjusted for concealed-carry permits and administrative use of the system the final, “… figure of 1,314,193 is a decrease of 9.8 percent compared to the November 2017 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,457,103.” SAAF’s calculations were a little brighter. It “… estimates November 2018 firearm sales at 1,404,729 units, a year-over-year decline of 9.3% from November 2017. Likely single handgun sales (643,229) fell year-over-year by 14.3% and single long-gun sales (627,323) fell year-over-year by 10.5%.”

Total—unadjusted—NICS checks processed by the FBI as of Dec. 1 currently stand at 23,638,551, ahead of the 23,141,970 2015 total. Last month’s Black Friday’s NICS checks seem to confirm the trend, coming in fourth place for 24-hour periods, behind the last three years.

Latest

Winchester 400 Legend
Winchester 400 Legend

Review: Winchester 400 Legend

Winchester Ammunition decided to split the difference, caliber-wise, between the .45-70 Gov't and the company's previous 350 Legend to create the new 400 Legend.

More Public Ranges Coming After EXPLORE Act Implementation Order Signed

U.S. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum signed off on a Secretarial Order in late June to begin implementation of key provisions of H.R. 6492, which means more hunting and shooting opportunities on public lands across the U.S.

The Marine Corps Scout Sniper Memorial Project

With the United States Marine Corps celebrating its 250th anniversary this year, an elite force within that branch is collecting funds to remember the service and sacrifice of its fallen with a dedicated memorial in Quantico, Va.

Silencer Central Banish 12: A Hunter-Friendly Shotgun Suppressor

Billed by Silencer Central as "the first shotgun suppressor designed specifically for hunters," the new Banish 12 has a number of field-friendly features and also stands out as one of the few shotgun suppressors on the market.

Marine Corps Knives Of World War II

Considered an essential piece of kit for every Marine, a wide variety of private-purchase and standard-issue knives were pressed into service in every theater of the war to tackle tasks ranging from hand-to-hand combat to everyday chores.

The Armed Citizen® July 21, 2025

Read today's "The Armed Citizen" entry for real stories of law-abiding citizens, past and present, who used their firearms to save lives.

Interests



Get the best of American Rifleman delivered to your inbox.