Fear & Loading: Firearm Sales Showing Interesting Trends

by
posted on December 6, 2018
** When you buy products through the links on our site, we may earn a commission that supports NRA's mission to protect, preserve and defend the Second Amendment. **
nics_nssf_ibncsdvk_1118-nssf-nics-graphs-2-small.jpg

A continuation of a “new norm” in gun sales below last year’s totals is reflected in November’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figures—which don’t necessarily reflect a gun purchase with each one processed—but some unusual trends also developed. Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting’s (SAAF) Chief Economist Jurgen Brauer commented in a press release that, “… despite the year-over-year decline, November sales actually were uncommonly strong in that the increase from October to November is the second-largest observed over the past six years.”

In addition, the number of times multiple guns were processed—representing the purchase of at least two firearms—came in at 38,028. That’s the second highest ever for a single month, trailing only 2012’s December total of 38,438. The SAAF press release noted: “This category of sales has seen strong gains throughout the year and it would be helpful to market analysts if in the future the FBI were to release more detailed information.”

Overall volume, however, remains at a pace that may see 2018 claim third-place honors for annual sales, trailing 2016 and 2017, respectively. As for November, after the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) adjusted for concealed-carry permits and administrative use of the system the final, “… figure of 1,314,193 is a decrease of 9.8 percent compared to the November 2017 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,457,103.” SAAF’s calculations were a little brighter. It “… estimates November 2018 firearm sales at 1,404,729 units, a year-over-year decline of 9.3% from November 2017. Likely single handgun sales (643,229) fell year-over-year by 14.3% and single long-gun sales (627,323) fell year-over-year by 10.5%.”

Total—unadjusted—NICS checks processed by the FBI as of Dec. 1 currently stand at 23,638,551, ahead of the 23,141,970 2015 total. Last month’s Black Friday’s NICS checks seem to confirm the trend, coming in fourth place for 24-hour periods, behind the last three years.

Latest

Kimber 2K11
Kimber 2K11

Review: Kimber 2K11

The 2011-style pistol was designed to address the capacity limitations of the single-stack M1911 platform, and Kimber's approach to the concept is its 2K11, a competition-ready offering with several notable features.

Favorite Firearms: A High-Flying Hi-Standard “A-D”

Manufactured in New Haven, Conn., in late 1940, this Hi-Standard pistol was shipped as a Model “A,” but a heavier Model “D” barrel was installed later to replace the original, light barrel, leading one American Rifleman reader to call it a Model “A-D.”

Ruger Helps Families In Need Through The Kids & Clays Foundation

In the effort to help tens of thousands of critically ill children and their families across the nation through local Ronald McDonald Houses, Ruger is among some of the industry’s foremost Platinum-level sponsors of The Kids & Clays Foundation.

Unlocking The Future: Smith & Wesson's "No Lock" Revolvers

The future is shaping up to be a good one for fans of Smith & Wesson revolvers. The iconic American company had released 14 new models thus far in 2025 at the time this was written mid-year. And, with one exception, they have all shared a common feature—no internal lock.

The Armed Citizen® Oct. 6, 2025

Read today's "The Armed Citizen" entry for real stories of law-abiding citizens, past and present, who used their firearms to save lives.

FEMA Notes Decline In Disaster Preparedness

A recent report from the Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA) noted a decline in local government preparedness for natural disasters, putting increased pressure on individuals to prepare themselves for emergencies.

Interests



Get the best of American Rifleman delivered to your inbox.