2023 Industry Predictions: Market Analysis Says . . .

Will The New Year Outpace Or Fall Behind Previous Ones?

by
posted on December 24, 2022
Outlook For 2023

Southwick Associates—a market research and economics firm specializing in the outdoor recreation markets for more than 30 years—released its 2023 outlook for the firearm industry shortly after Black Friday. Skyrocketing interest rates, inflation and the risk of some another variable on the horizon, however, makes any prediction risky.

“The factors driving sales are certainly more numerous and complex than we’ve seen before,” said Nancy Bacon, vice president at Southwick Associates. “However, looking at past years, current conditions remain reasonable for the 2023 firearms and accessories market. Different areas of the trade will do better than others, however, given inventory build-ups and interest rate impacts.”

The report claimed, perhaps prematurely, that a reduction in political rhetoric aimed at the Second Amendment will lead to leveled gun sales volume in 2023. It notes, “…a better balance in Congress will reduce consumer concerns about future sales restrictions.”

President Joe Biden apparently didn’t get the memo. On Thanksgiving Day, he said, “The idea we still allow semi-automatic weapons to be purchased is sick. Just sick,” according to Associated Press. “I’m going to try to get rid of assault weapons.” On Black Friday—the very next day—the FBI handled 192,749 background checks; a 2.8 percent increase compared to the same 24-hour period in 2021. Biden reiterated the same threat on Dec. 7.

Southwick’s report predicts the increase in gun and ammunition inventory at retailers will reduce scarcity-driven purchases next year. The increased availability will be a welcome change, along with the anticipated continuation of the discount, rebate and incentive trend that hit the market in mid-2022.

“…[W]e expect 2023’s retail firearms market to ease back to 2017 levels,” the report predicts. “2017’s sales were above 2019’s volumes and one of the trade’s best years. Ammunition demand will also decline slightly, but likely not as much as firearm sales.”

Latest

Davidsons Exclusive Winchester 1895 1
Davidsons Exclusive Winchester 1895 1

Gun Of The Week: Davidson's Winchester Model 1895 Texas Rangers Edition

Watch American Rifleman staff on the range this week with the Winchester Model 1895 Texas Ranger's 200th Anniversary Edition, a Davidson's Exclusive rifle that commemorates the storied history of Texas law enforcement.

The Armed Citizen® March 24, 2023

Read today's "The Armed Citizen" entry for real stories of law-abiding citizens, past and present, who used their firearms to save lives.

Elbert Searle's Prototype Savage Squeeze-Cocker Pistol

Elbert Searle isn't one of the most well-known firearm designers, but his Savage Model 1907 and its derivatives were popular guns in their time. Now, a unique prototype pistol of his has been discovered, illustrating what else could have been in Savage's early 20th-century handgun lineup.

Spring Sales, Savings & Sweepstakes Ongoing

Special incentives from Hornady, Smith & Wesson and Beretta have already been come and gone, but they were just the first. Things have accelerated since.

I Have This Old Gun: Terry Carbine

One of the most interesting, and short-lived, breechloading designs of the mid-19th century is the Terry carbine, produced by the firm of Calisher & Terry. Despite its novel mechanism, the carbine didn't survive the transition to the metallic-cartridge era.

Favorite Firearms: A Birthday Gift From Dad

When I was growing up, my father was one of the bigger Smith & Wesson collectors in Northern California. This led him to have an acquaintance with Roy Jinks of S&W.

Interests



Get the best of American Rifleman delivered to your inbox.