2023 Industry Predictions: Market Analysis Says . . .

Will The New Year Outpace Or Fall Behind Previous Ones?

by
posted on December 24, 2022
** When you buy products through the links on our site, we may earn a commission that supports NRA's mission to protect, preserve and defend the Second Amendment. **
Outlook For 2023

Southwick Associates—a market research and economics firm specializing in the outdoor recreation markets for more than 30 years—released its 2023 outlook for the firearm industry shortly after Black Friday. Skyrocketing interest rates, inflation and the risk of some another variable on the horizon, however, makes any prediction risky.

“The factors driving sales are certainly more numerous and complex than we’ve seen before,” said Nancy Bacon, vice president at Southwick Associates. “However, looking at past years, current conditions remain reasonable for the 2023 firearms and accessories market. Different areas of the trade will do better than others, however, given inventory build-ups and interest rate impacts.”

The report claimed, perhaps prematurely, that a reduction in political rhetoric aimed at the Second Amendment will lead to leveled gun sales volume in 2023. It notes, “…a better balance in Congress will reduce consumer concerns about future sales restrictions.”

President Joe Biden apparently didn’t get the memo. On Thanksgiving Day, he said, “The idea we still allow semi-automatic weapons to be purchased is sick. Just sick,” according to Associated Press. “I’m going to try to get rid of assault weapons.” On Black Friday—the very next day—the FBI handled 192,749 background checks; a 2.8 percent increase compared to the same 24-hour period in 2021. Biden reiterated the same threat on Dec. 7.

Southwick’s report predicts the increase in gun and ammunition inventory at retailers will reduce scarcity-driven purchases next year. The increased availability will be a welcome change, along with the anticipated continuation of the discount, rebate and incentive trend that hit the market in mid-2022.

“…[W]e expect 2023’s retail firearms market to ease back to 2017 levels,” the report predicts. “2017’s sales were above 2019’s volumes and one of the trade’s best years. Ammunition demand will also decline slightly, but likely not as much as firearm sales.”

Latest

Making Keltec Pr57 1
Making Keltec Pr57 1

Making The KelTec PR57 In Wyoming

To make its PR57 handgun, KelTec invested in an entirely new manufacturing facility located in Rock Springs, Wyo. "American Rifleman Television" headed out for an inside look at the company's efficient production process.

Taurus 66 Combat: A New "Fighting Revolver"

First introduced in the 1970s, the Taurus 66 Combat is a medium-frame revolver that has seen several evolutions in its lifetime, and the latest update creates what the company considers "the final word in fighting revolvers."

Review: Taurus GX2

From cars to cellphones, as a product gets more sophisticated, it usually also gets more expensive. And, as modern handguns get more modular and optic-ready, their prices tend to go up.

Rifleman Q&A: A Garand Puzzlement

"We are a father-and-son NRA member tandem in search of an answer regarding the branding of an M1 Garand rifle. We own an M1 rifle that has markings indicating it was a “lend lease to England,” and it also has a .308 barrel/sleeve."

$160K Raised For HAVA At SIG Sauer Event

SIG Sauer hosted its 9th Annual Honored American Veterans Afield (HAVA) Charity Golf event early last month and raised more than $160,000 to support disabled veterans.

Scout The Trail To A General Purpose Rifle

The search for a universal longarm—one suitable for both hunting and defensive scenarios—is a trek that involves a bit of doubling back.

Interests



Get the best of American Rifleman delivered to your inbox.