2023 Industry Predictions: Market Analysis Says . . .

Will The New Year Outpace Or Fall Behind Previous Ones?

by
posted on December 24, 2022
** When you buy products through the links on our site, we may earn a commission that supports NRA's mission to protect, preserve and defend the Second Amendment. **
Outlook For 2023

Southwick Associates—a market research and economics firm specializing in the outdoor recreation markets for more than 30 years—released its 2023 outlook for the firearm industry shortly after Black Friday. Skyrocketing interest rates, inflation and the risk of some another variable on the horizon, however, makes any prediction risky.

“The factors driving sales are certainly more numerous and complex than we’ve seen before,” said Nancy Bacon, vice president at Southwick Associates. “However, looking at past years, current conditions remain reasonable for the 2023 firearms and accessories market. Different areas of the trade will do better than others, however, given inventory build-ups and interest rate impacts.”

The report claimed, perhaps prematurely, that a reduction in political rhetoric aimed at the Second Amendment will lead to leveled gun sales volume in 2023. It notes, “…a better balance in Congress will reduce consumer concerns about future sales restrictions.”

President Joe Biden apparently didn’t get the memo. On Thanksgiving Day, he said, “The idea we still allow semi-automatic weapons to be purchased is sick. Just sick,” according to Associated Press. “I’m going to try to get rid of assault weapons.” On Black Friday—the very next day—the FBI handled 192,749 background checks; a 2.8 percent increase compared to the same 24-hour period in 2021. Biden reiterated the same threat on Dec. 7.

Southwick’s report predicts the increase in gun and ammunition inventory at retailers will reduce scarcity-driven purchases next year. The increased availability will be a welcome change, along with the anticipated continuation of the discount, rebate and incentive trend that hit the market in mid-2022.

“…[W]e expect 2023’s retail firearms market to ease back to 2017 levels,” the report predicts. “2017’s sales were above 2019’s volumes and one of the trade’s best years. Ammunition demand will also decline slightly, but likely not as much as firearm sales.”

Latest

Liberator Aircraft Crew
Liberator Aircraft Crew

"Clay Pigeons That Shoot Back:" Aerial Gunnery Training & Combat In WWII

"Even though slated early in my training period to be a photographer, I had to go through the "firing mill" as intensively as the others. For months, we burned up so much powder, I began to be afraid there wouldn't be enough for the boys who were really slugging it out at high altitudes ..."

Preview: Vietnam Combat | Firefights And Writing History

In May 1968, 1st/Lt. Robin Bartlett, originally ordered to the 101st Airborne, was reassigned to the 1st Cavalry Division (Airmobile), a helicopter combat assault unit.

New For 2025: SIG Sauer P211-GTO

SIG Sauer introduced its first hybrid-frame, 2011-style pistol at its 2025 NEXT product launch event, and the P211-GTO blends features from the M1911 with design elements from the P320.

Sellmark Breaks Ground On “Verdexium” Project

In an effort to reduce reliance on international supply chains and bolster domestic manufacturing, Sellmark Corp.—parent company of the Sightmark, Pulsar, Inforce, Kopfjäger, Firefield, BulletSafe and Dark 30 brands—has broken ground on a new manufacturing complex in Mansfield, Texas, that it calls a “transformative force for American-led growth and innovation.”

Gun Of The Week: Heritage Manufacturing 92

American Rifleman staff are on the range with one of the most iconic lever-actions ever created, except this one has a bit of a plot twist—it is a model made overseas and imported by Heritage Manufacturing.

The Armed Citizen® July 25, 2025

Read today's "The Armed Citizen" entry for real stories of law-abiding citizens, past and present, who used their firearms to save lives.

Interests



Get the best of American Rifleman delivered to your inbox.