Gun Sales Numbers Bucking Election Year Trends

For six months in a row, monthly sales estimates from the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF)—based on the volume of National Instant Criminal Background Systems (NICS) checks performed by the FBI prior to a firearm purchase—have been down when compared to the same periods in 2023. The trend defies what has become something of a rule of thumb in the industry: Contentious presidential election races fuel demand.

There’s no doubt manufacturers, suppliers, distributors and retailers are watching the situation closely. There are number of possible catalysts, including inflation, oversaturation during COVID’s heightened safety concerns, relative vacuum of political rhetoric targeting the Second Amendment and others. It’s more likely a combination of several, but rather than hazarding a guess, here’s a look at the figures below.

December 2023 was the last month that saw a year-over-year increase in the NSSF gun-sale estimate. That traditional holiday shopping season came in up by 1.6 percent when compared to 2022 figures. Positive results stopped summarily on New Years Day.

January 2024 suffered a decline of 5.8 percent. February came close to tying 2023 numbers, but it was still down by .01 percent—admittedly not enough to move most FFL needles.

What came in March was a big one, though—a drop of 7.4 percent. April was even worse with an 11.2 percent decline.

There was no letup with the numbers in May and June, either. They came in below 2023’s figures down 7.2 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively.

There is some good news, however. June 2024 was the 59th month in a row that more than 1 million firearms purchases were reflected in NICS background checks.

That month also showed the lowest loss—in percentage points—since February. With luck, it signals the shift toward the positive column. We’ll let you know when final figures are in.